The Hashpoint for September 17, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 17, 2026

Strategy paid for its preferred-stock defense with Bitcoin. Filings through September 13, tallied by Cryptobriefing, put the STRC buyback at roughly $950 million across 9.96 million shares since July 20, with about $765 million raised from MSTR common sales and about $161 million raised from selling coins. The preferred still closed Wednesday at $97.07, the lowest print of this series and $2.93 under par, on the day the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate 25 basis points and the 10-year touched 5.04%. Bitcoin trades at $76,347 this morning, up 0.58% in 24 hours and down 1.9% on the week, which puts price at 1.19 times the power-law floor of $63,945 and 0.50 times the median of $152,251.

Price steadies as the network sheds hashrate

the power-law floor of $63,945 and 0.50 times the median of $152,251.

The dashboard generated today's bands at 11:33 UTC: a $63,945 floor, a $152,251 median, a $456,753 ceiling. Both anchors climbed overnight, the floor by $57.54. Price rose faster, so the median multiple ticked back to 0.5015 from yesterday's 0.498. On September 9 this publication opened at 1.24 times the floor. Fifteen sessions later the multiple reads 1.19, and most of that move came from a floor that rises every day rather than from a coin that fell far. The v4 card refreshed again this morning on model v3.0.0-horizon and puts 30-day output at $82,173, a fitted-curve number rather than a call.

at block 967,392, down 9.75% on the day, with the September 19 retarget now estimated at +3.7% to 132.16 trillion.

CoinWarz reads hashrate at 804 EH/s, down 9.75% on the day and 16.89% over 30 days. Yesterday the same page read 940 EH/s. The live estimate carries noise, and the retarget math confirms the direction anyway: blocks now arrive 21 seconds inside target rather than Tuesday's 28, and the September 19 adjustment estimates +3.7% to 132.16 trillion against yesterday's +4.89%. Miners are switching machines off into a week that took the coin down 1.9%.

The Fed hiked and the long end followed

hike and reads 4.99% this morning, with the real yield at 2.62%, the 30-year at 5.36%, and the dollar index at 100.07.

The Committee moved unanimously to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase since July 2023. Chairman Warsh told the press conference that "the plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long," and that he "would be hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive." He declined to pre-commit to a path.

The bond market answered by selling the long end. The 10-year reached 5.04%, its highest since 2007, and Trading Economics reads 4.99% this morning. The 2-year sits at 4.74%, the 30-year at 5.36%, the 10-year real yield at 2.62%. The dollar index closed at 100.07, its first finish above the round number in weeks. Blockhead reports traders now price 75 basis points of further tightening by mid-2027. Jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed and housing starts land at 8:30 this morning; Governor Bowman speaks Friday at 9:30.

Strategy sold coins to defend the preferred

a 12.36% effective yield on day 129 without a close at or above $100.

The dashboard confirms $97.07 for Wednesday, seven cents below Tuesday's $97.14, and StockAnalysis agrees to the penny. TradingView printed $97.85 and ran a full session stale for the fourth time this week. The gap to par widened to $2.93, the widest reading since this series began.

At $97.07 the 12.00% coupon yields 12.36% against a trailing paid rate of 11.50%. Today is day 129 since STRC last closed at or above $100 on May 11, with zero days above par across the trailing 7 and 30 sessions, and the at-the-market program stays closed. The next ex-dividend date falls September 30. The coupon resets October 1, which leaves 14 more days at a rate the market set in July.

Hashpoint's own analysis of that escalator lag holds that a monthly reset strands the largest institutional bid for weeks after the bond market reprices. Wednesday tested it directly. The policy rate went up, the 10-year went up, and the preferred went down. A real-time reset would have answered inside the session. This one answers on the first of the month.

average, and this morning's $76,347 puts the position $935 a coin above cost.

Strategy filed no 8-K in the last 24 hours. Holdings hold at 845,050 BTC on a $63.73 billion basis, a $75,412 average, with the September 14 filing showing zero coins bought or sold for a second straight week. At $76,347 the position sits $935 a coin above cost, reversing Tuesday's intraday print below the line.

One number reframes the week. The company raised about $161 million by selling Bitcoin and spent it, with $765 million of common-stock proceeds, buying back its own preferred. The accumulation engine runs in reverse to hold a funding instrument near a par it has not touched since May.

Two sessions, $746 million out

$295.9 million Wednesday, led by IBIT at $144.1 million, for a two-session total of $746 million.

Farside's table for September 16 shows $295.9 million leaving the complex. IBIT led at $144.1 million, ARKB followed at $84.4 million, FBTC gave up $52.7 million and GBTC $18.2 million. Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in $3.5 million, the only creation anywhere in the table. Add Tuesday's $450.4 million and two sessions removed $746 million while the coin fell 1.5%. Cumulative net flow since launch stands at $54.59 billion, and the dashboard's supply pressure estimate fell to 2.76 from 3.36.

The Bull View

• The Block: House Financial Services advanced the American Reserve Modernization Act, directing Treasury to run a secure storage facility and buy Bitcoin over five years on a budget-neutral basis.
• BeInCrypto: the same panel cleared the reserve bill 28-21 alongside two crypto tax measures, two days after the Senate blocked market-structure law.
• Bitcoin Magazine: the CFTC chairman said the agency will write crypto rules with the White House regardless of the 49-50 cloture failure.
• Bitcoin Magazine: Morgan Creek's Mark Yusko called Bitcoin undervalued at these levels and told holders to accumulate.
• The Block: Circle launched Arc mainnet with BlackRock and Visa among the validators.
• The Block: Deutsche Bank will open Bitcoin and ether custody to European institutions.

The bulls lean on a legislative path that reopened in the House the week it closed in the Senate, on agency rulemaking that never needed the statute, and on a tape that absorbed three quarters of a billion dollars of redemptions without losing $75,000.

The Bear View

• Blockhead: the 10-year reached 5.04%, its highest since 2007, and traders now price 75 basis points of further tightening by mid-2027.
• CNBC: the 10-year climbed back to 5% after the hike as Warsh flagged inflation risk.
• Vantage Markets: the dollar index cleared 100 for the first time in weeks and the Bloomberg dollar gauge had its best day in three months.
• Cryptobriefing: Strategy has spent about $950 million on STRC buybacks since July 20 and funded roughly $161 million of it by selling Bitcoin.
• KuCoin: spot Bitcoin funds shed $295.9 million and ether funds $141 million, with new on-chain capital inflows stalled.
• Blockhead: more than $455 million of margin positions liquidated inside a day.

The bears lean on a risk-free rate at 5% that reprices every long-duration asset, on a dollar that broke a round number, and on the largest corporate holder selling coins to support paper.

The Hashpoint read

median, STRC $2.93 under par, the 10-year at 4.99%, and the ATM closed on day 129.

Price sits at 1.19 times the power-law floor and 0.50 times the median. Both multiples have moved less across fifteen sessions than the STRC discount has moved in three.

Yesterday this publication watched for a hike with the 10-year holding near 5%. The curve delivered more: the long end went up with the policy rate, the dollar cleared 100, and the preferred still fell. That combination removes the easy version of the thesis, which reads yields and Bitcoin as a simple seesaw. The coin rose 0.58% while the 10-year printed a 19-year high. What survives is narrower and harder to argue with. Strategy's funding instrument sits $2.93 under a par it last touched 129 days ago, the at-the-market program stays shut, and the rate it pays cannot answer Wednesday's repricing until October 1.

The bulls get the institutional direction right and the arithmetic wrong: a Treasury purchase program written into a House markup buys nothing this year, and a German custody desk moves no coins this quarter. The bears get the discount rate right and the damage wrong, because $746 million of redemptions moved the coin 1.5% and the floor rose through both sessions.

The next confirming data point is the October 1 reset and the 14 sessions in front of it. A STRC close under $97.00 with the ATM still shut would say the instrument, not the curve, sets the discount. The disconfirming one is a recovery above $98.41 on the current coupon, which would mean the buyback holds the bid without a rate change and the escalator never has to run.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (summary generated 11:33 UTC, strc/current, synthesis/daily, predictions/v4, corporate/holdings), Farside Investors, StockAnalysis, CoinDesk, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, FRED, Federal Reserve press conference transcript, Kiplinger, The Block, Bitcoin Magazine, Decrypt, Cryptobriefing, Blockhead, KuCoin, Vantage Markets, Cryptotimes, BeInCrypto. Nothing here is investment advice.