The Hashpoint for September 18, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 18, 2026

Strategy's preferred stock closed Thursday at $98.13, up $1.06 on the session and $1.87 under par. That is the narrowest gap since this daily series began on September 9 and the largest single-session gain STRC has posted in that stretch. The 10-year Treasury yield eased three basis points to 4.96% across the same session, so the buyback moved the instrument and the curve sat still. Bitcoin trades at $78,101 this morning, up 2.30% in 24 hours and up 0.56% on the week, which puts price at 1.22 times the power-law floor of $63,945 and 0.51 times the median of $152,251.

The buyback closes the gap the curve opened

under par, for a 12.23% effective yield on day 130 without a close at or above $100.

StockAnalysis puts Thursday's close at $98.13 against Wednesday's $97.07. Three days ago the discount to par read $2.93 and set a series low. It now reads $1.87, and nothing in the bond market explains the move. The 10-year fell three basis points while the preferred gained 1.09%.

At $98.13 the 12.00% coupon yields 12.23% against a trailing paid rate of 11.50%. Today is day 130 since STRC last closed at or above $100 on May 11. The coupon resets October 1, which leaves 13 sessions at a rate the market set in July.

Yesterday this publication named the disconfirming marker plainly: a recovery above $98.41 on the current coupon would mean the buyback holds the bid without a rate change and the escalator never has to run. Thursday came within 28 cents of that line. Hashpoint's own analysis of the escalator lag holds that a monthly reset strands the largest institutional bid for weeks after the bond market reprices. Thursday narrows that claim rather than breaking it. A company willing to spend $950.8 million can hold the instrument near par through the wait.

average, and this morning's $78,101 puts the position $2,689 a coin above cost.

Strategy filed no 8-K in the last 24 hours, and the September 14 filing stands as the most recent. Holdings hold at 845,050 BTC on a $63.73 billion basis, a $75,412 average. At $78,101 the position sits $2,689 a coin above cost, roughly nine times the $298 cushion this publication reported Wednesday morning.

The funding arithmetic still frames the week. Strategy raised about $765 million from MSTR common sales and about $161 million from selling coins, then spent $950.8 million on 9.96 million preferred shares across eight windows between July 20 and September 13. The company has said it wants the preferred back at $100, and Thursday's close is the closest it has come.

Price clears $78,000 while Tokyo tightens

the power-law floor of $63,945 and 0.51 times the median of $152,251.

The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25%, a 31-year high, citing import costs and energy prices against its 2% target. Bitcoin rose through the announcement, climbing from an overnight low near $76,200 to $77,400 on CoinDesk's tape and $78,101 by this morning. The yen weakened to 156.70 per dollar from 156.20, and the gap between Japanese and American policy rates stayed wide enough to keep carry funding cheap.

Against the bands the dashboard published Thursday, a $63,945 floor and a $152,251 median, price reads 1.22 times the floor and 0.51 times the median. On September 9 the same measure read 1.24 and 0.52.

at block 967,543, up 12.48% over 30 days, with the September 19 retarget estimated at +3.36% to 131.73 trillion.

CoinWarz reads hashrate at 916 EH/s, up 0.77% on the day and 12.48% over 30 days. Wednesday the same page printed 804 and Tuesday 940, so the retarget math settles the direction the live estimate cannot. Blocks arrive 20 seconds inside target with 162 left in the epoch, and Saturday's adjustment estimates +3.36% to 131.73 trillion at 08:11 UTC.

The flows turn and the long end eases

$159.5 million Thursday, with IBIT alone at $183.7 million, after two sessions that removed $746 million.

Farside's table for September 17 shows $159.5 million entering the complex. IBIT accounted for $183.7 million of it, more than the whole day's net, while FBTC gave up $16.6 million and the rest of the table combined for another $8.2 million of redemptions. One fund carried the session. Cumulative net flow since launch reads $54.797 billion.

4.99%, with the 2-year at 4.72%, the 30-year at 5.29%, the real yield at 2.68% and the dollar index at 100.31.

Trading Economics has the 10-year at 4.96% this morning, 8 basis points off Tuesday's 5.04% peak. The 2-year sits at 4.72%, the 30-year at 5.29%. FRED's 10-year real yield last printed 2.68% for September 16. The dollar index reads 100.31 and holds above the round number it cleared Wednesday. Industrial production lands at 9:15 this morning, Governor Bowman speaks at 9:30, and the Conference Board leading index follows at 10:00.

The Bull View

• CoinDesk: The Bank of Japan lifted rates 25 basis points to a 31-year high and Bitcoin topped $77,000 into the announcement instead of selling off.
• Farside Investors: Spot ETFs took in $159.5 million Thursday, with IBIT at $183.7 million, ending a two-session stretch of redemptions.
• The Block: A Grayscale analyst holds the position that $58,000 marked the cycle low.
• Bitcoin Magazine: Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas projects Bitcoin ETF assets passing gold ETF assets as younger holders allocate.
• The Block: JPMorgan wrote that Bitcoin could outperform gold once ETF hedging pressure eases.
• CoinDesk: The SEC approved a controlled pathway for tokenized equities and separately moved on round-the-clock securities trading.
• The Block: The CFTC adopted a developer-friendly posture on crypto rulemaking, following the SEC.

The bulls lean on a tape that absorbed two central bank hikes in one week without losing $76,000, and on a fund complex that turned buyer again after the heaviest outflow since June. Their regulatory case rests on agency rulemaking that advances without the statute the Senate blocked.

The Bear View

• Farside Investors: Every fund other than IBIT redeemed Thursday, and FBTC alone gave up $16.6 million.
• CoinDesk: Corporate treasuries bought 5,900 Bitcoin across three months, the weakest corporate demand of the cycle.
• Yahoo Finance: Investors argue the preferred buyback has diverted Strategy from accumulation, and the company sold coins at a loss during some of those windows.
• Trading Economics: The 30-year holds at 5.29% and the 10-year real yield at 2.68%, which keeps the discount rate on every long-duration asset near two-decade highs.
• CoinDesk: Ether funds shed money for a third straight session while Bitcoin rose.
• The Block: The Treasury sanctioned the Iranian exchange BitBank over Bitcoin transfers to the IRGC.

The bears lean on breadth, or the absence of it, with one fund carrying an entire day of inflow. They also point at the largest corporate buyer spending a billion dollars on paper while corporate purchases across the market fell to 5,900 coins in a quarter.

The Hashpoint read

median, STRC $1.87 under par, the 10-year at 4.96%, and 13 days to the October 1 reset.

Price sits at 1.22 times the power-law floor and 0.51 times the median. Both multiples read within two hundredths of where this publication opened the series on September 9, across nine sessions that took in a failed cloture vote, a Fed hike, a BoJ hike and $1.1 billion of gross ETF movement. The spring has not discharged. It loaded and unloaded in the same place.

Thursday answered the question yesterday's edition posed, and the answer came back split. The preferred recovered $1.06 with the curve flat, which says the buyback sets the bid. It stopped 28 cents short of the $98.41 mark that would have cleared the instrument, which says the coupon still matters. Strategy spent $950.8 million to produce that result and funded $161 million of it by selling Bitcoin. A funding instrument that needs a billion dollars of company cash to trade two dollars under par is not fixed, and it is also not breaking.

The bulls get the flow right and the breadth wrong, because one fund produced Thursday's entire net number and $159.5 million recovers 21% of what two prior sessions removed. The bears get the discount rate right and the price wrong, because the coin rose 2.30% with the 30-year at 5.29%.

The next confirming data point is Saturday's retarget at +3.36% and then the October 1 coupon reset. A STRC close at or above $98.41 before October 1 would finish the case that the buyback alone holds par and the escalator stays idle. A slide back under $97.50 with the ATM still shut would say Thursday bought one session and the reset carries the weight.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (bands of September 17, endpoints unreachable this morning), Farside Investors, StockAnalysis, CoinDesk, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, FRED, The Block, Bitcoin Magazine, Decrypt, Yahoo Finance, Crypto.news, KuCoin. Nothing here is investment advice.