The Hashpoint for November 14, 2026
· Dennis W. Davis
Bitcoin Hashpoint, November 14, 2026
Bitcoin traded under its power-law floor this morning. At 6:05 a.m. the box's Coinbase read showed $67,203, against a floor of $67,357 for November 13, a multiple of 0.998. Friday's close of $68,237 held the line at 1.013 times. Bitcoin.com puts the Saturday low near $66,580, or 0.99 times the floor by Hashpoint arithmetic. Yesterday's confirming print for the thesis also landed: STRC closed at $99.91, five cents lower, with the 10-year at 5.15%.
Power law and network
The box's November 13 bands set the floor at $67,357, the median at $160,375 and the ceiling at $481,124. Price sits at 0.42 times the median. A day ago the 6:05 read stood $1,950 above the floor line. This morning it sits $154 below it.
CoinGecko shows $67,068, down 2.6% in a day and 12.0% in a week, with a 24-hour range of $66,492 to $70,045. CoinDesk reports a break of the 200-week moving average near $68,000.
The network retargeted at block 975,744 just after midnight Eastern. Mempool.space records a 9.13% cut, which takes difficulty to about 134.8 trillion from 148.4 trillion by Hashpoint arithmetic. Slow blocks forced it: the box measured a 769-second average interval against the 600-second target. The box reads hashrate at 811 exahash per second for November 13, with a three-day median of 901 and a 30-day change of minus 25%. The next retarget falls near November 28 at block 977,760. The chain sits 74,279 blocks from the fifth halving.
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STRC and Strategy
STRC closed Friday at $99.91 on the box's series, down from $99.96. The run below par reached 127 sessions, and the last close at or above $100 came on May 14, 183 days ago. The declared rate holds at 12.00%, an effective 12.011% at the close. The box flags the issuance window as marginal. Strategy filed no 8-K in the past 24 hours; Bitcoin.com names the November 9 filing as the latest.
That filing stands: 850,364 coins at a $75,456 average, $64.17 billion in cost. At $67,203 the stack is worth $57.15 billion, $8,253 a coin and about $7.02 billion under cost by Hashpoint arithmetic. Yesterday the gap ran $5.28 billion. Bitcoin.com reports MSTR closed Friday at $111.62, citing Yahoo, against $114.41 Thursday. The MSCI exit takes effect after the November 30 close.
Macro and ETF flows
October producer prices rose 0.3% on the month and 6.5% on the year, a tenth under consensus on both, per Trading Economics and NewsBytes. The annual rate marks the largest since November 2022. Core rose 5.0% on the year, in line. The curve barely moved: Trading Economics shows the 10-year at 5.15% Friday, up 30 basis points on the week, the 2-year at 4.86% and the 30-year at 5.47%. The 10-year real yield reads 2.88%. The dollar index closed at 103.41, its highest since March 2025. Futures price about 88% odds of a 25 basis point hike on December 9.
Spot funds lost $284.1 million Thursday on the box's settled Farside series. Cointelegraph, citing Farside, puts Friday at $185.4 million out, with IBIT down $143.5 million, FBTC down $41.9 million and every other fund flat. That makes seven straight outflow sessions and about $1.07 billion for the week. Cumulative inflow falls to roughly $54.70 billion through Friday by Hashpoint arithmetic. The box's supply pressure reading fell to minus 2.17 from minus 2.04.
Market mood reads 20 on https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794741632400000&sa=E for November 13, down from 28 a week ago. The Hashpoint structural composite also reads 20, Extreme Fear, as of November 12. The crowd and the structure agree, with no gap between them.
The Daily Experiment
This is the Hashpoint's own experiment, run on the box's data. If Bitcoin holds Friday's $68,237 close, the Theory Lab's family median sits at $95,953 in 30 days and $103,287 in 90, a price gap of minus 29% and minus 34%, as of November 13.
The 90-day gap widened from minus 30.5% yesterday, the largest move of the six against its own spread. The same six models carry the median, with stock-to-flow still excluded, so the shift reflects price, not composition. The power-law clock moved harder: a flat $68,237 meets the rising floor on November 28, 15 days out, down from 67 days. The 6:05 price already sits under it. STRC's ten-session pace turned positive at $0.078 a session even as Friday's close slipped, so the box reads par two sessions out. The yield link stays weak, with an r-squared of 0.0038 over 62 sessions.
| Scenario | If | Then | Since yesterday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Theory drift | BTC holds $68,237 | +90d median $103,287, gap -34% | from |
| -30.5%, same models | |||
| Power-law clock | Price stays flat | Meets floor Nov 28, 15 days | from |
| 67 days | |||
| Strategy cushion | BTC holds $68,237 | 9.6% under $75,456 cost | from |
| -5.4% | |||
| STRC to par | +$0.078 a session holds | Par in 2 sessions; rule reads | |
| 12.25% | from never | ||
| ETF absorption | 30-day pace holds | -1,045 BTC a day, -2.32x issuance | |
| from -2.20x | |||
| Yield shock | 10-year +25 bp | BTC -0.74%, r-squared 0.00, n 62 | from |
| -0.48% |
The STRC step is the box's structural reading of the rule, not a company statement.
The Bull View
- 24/7 Wall St.: Strategy's $5.07 billion in USD assets covers 3.4 years of dividend and interest payments, with a $1 billion buyback authorized
- Mempool.space: difficulty fell 9.13% at block 975,744, the relief miners get when hashrate drops 25% in a month
- Trading Economics: October PPI rose 0.3% on the month against 0.4% expected, a tenth under consensus
- 24/7 Wall St.: Michael Saylor says Strategy would "refinance the debt" even through a 90% four-year drawdown
The bull case leans on funding runway at the largest corporate holder and on a softer inflation print than feared.
The Bear View
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin broke its 200-week moving average near $68,000 and "eyes bear market lows"
- Cointelegraph: spot funds shed $185.4 million Friday, the seventh straight outflow, with IBIT down 11 sessions running
- 24/7 Wall St.: all 850,364 of Strategy's coins sit under their $64.16 billion cost, and index funds must sell after November 30
- Bitcoin.com: Strategy's unrealized loss reaches about $7.2 billion near $67,000
- Yahoo Finance via GuruFocus: JPMorgan puts potential index outflows at up to $8.8 billion if other providers follow MSCI
- NewsBytes: annual producer inflation hit 6.5%, the highest since November 2022, and lifted the 10-year to 5.15%
- Trading Economics: the dollar index closed above 103, its highest since March 2025
The bear case leans on a hike path, a strong dollar and a corporate buyer now deep under cost.
The Hashpoint read
Bitcoin trades at 0.998 times its floor and 0.42 times its median, with the 10-year at 5.15% and STRC nine cents under par.
The bears get the location right this morning. Price sits under the floor line on the box's read, ETFs drained 1,045 coins a day over 30 days against 450 mined, and the stack sits $7.02 billion under cost. Friday also delivered the thesis's own confirming print: STRC fell to $99.91 with the 10-year above 5.10%. The largest corporate bid heads into its index exit with its funding instrument still under par after 127 sessions.
The bears still owe the yield link. The box's 90-day r-squared reads 0.0038, so the 10-year explains almost none of Bitcoin's daily moves, and the drop tracked fund redemptions and the Nvidia selloff more than rates. The bulls get the miner leg right: a 9.13% difficulty cut lowers the cost of a coin for every machine still running. They miss the floor. A rising line meets a flat price every day it holds, and the clock now reads 15 days for Friday's close.
The spring now sits at the floor rather than above it. The next confirming print is a daily close under the floor, $67,357 and rising. The disconfirming print is a STRC close at or above $100, which the box's own pace puts two sessions out.
Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (HASHPOINT DATA email of November 14, bands, STRC and experiments as of November 13), Strategy Form 8-K of November 9, 2026, CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, 24/7 Wall St., Bitcoin.com, Yahoo Finance via GuruFocus, NewsBytes, Trading Economics, Farside via the box and Cointelegraph, CoinGecko, https://www.google.com/url?q=http://mempool.space&source=gmail&ust=1794741632400000&sa=E, Crypto Fear and Greed Index by https://www.google.com/url?q=http://alternative.me&source=gmail&ust=1794741632400000&sa=E. Structural reads, not forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.
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