The Hashpoint for September 11, 2026
September 11, 2026 · Dennis W. Davis
Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 11, 2026
The 10-year Treasury crossed the line this series drew on its first day. The yield touched 4.97% this week, its highest since October 2023, and sits at 4.94% this morning after a 12 basis point jump on Thursday. Wednesday's edition named 4.90% as the level that would push STRC away from par at the moment its coupon cannot answer. Bitcoin trades at $77,223 at the data pull, down 1.3% in 24 hours and 4.7% on the week. Against the Hashpoint floor of $63,601 that is 1.21 times the floor and 0.51 times the $151,431 median. STRC closed Thursday at $97.97, $2.03 under par. The spring has not released. The cap on it moved up.
The line the yield crossed
Thursday's bond session set the terms. August producer prices rose 0.4% on the month and 5.4% on the year, with energy commodities up 4.2% and diesel up 24.1%. WTI crude closed above $100 a barrel for the first time since May and Brent traded above $106. The 10-year rose 12 basis points to 4.96% intraday, the 30-year reached 5.36%, and the 10-year TIPS real yield settled at 2.47%. Fed funds futures now price a 71% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the September 15 and 16 meeting. The ECB raised its own rate 25 basis points to 2.50% the same day.
The dollar has not joined the move. DXY reads 99.15, up 0.11% on the session. This is a bond-market event with an energy driver, and the real yield of 2.47% is the number a non-yielding asset competes against in every session. The Fed enters its quiet period, so no speakers stand between this morning's CPI print at 8:30 AM ET and Tuesday's meeting.
The ETF desks answered the yield by selling. Thursday's net outflow of $282.7 million was the largest of the week and came almost entirely from ARKB, which shed $164.3 million. Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in about $4 million as the only fund with net inflows. Tuesday's $46.6 million and Wednesday's $120.2 million bring the three-session total to $449.5 million, which erases more than half of the $770.2 million the complex gathered in the first four sessions of the month. Cumulative net inflow since launch on the Hashpoint tracker reads $55.24 billion.
The dashboard's raw supply-pressure estimate reads 3.37: 45,513 BTC of institutional accumulation over 30 days against 13,500 BTC of new issuance. That ratio was 3.55 on Wednesday. The 30-day window still carries the September 3 and 4 inflows and Strategy's late-August purchase, so it will keep sliding as long as the daily prints stay red.
The pin holds, at a cost
STRC did the opposite of what a 12 basis point jump in the 10-year should do to it. The stock closed Thursday at $97.97, up 12 cents on the session, with a day's range of $97.72 to $98.00. Wednesday's close of $97.75 was the low print of the week. The count of days since the last close at or above $100 stands at 123, dating to May 11. Strategy has held the coupon at 12.00% since July 1 and will hold it through September, so a buyer at $97.97 receives 12.25%.
Hashpoint's own analysis reads the divergence as the buyback at work. Strategy's 8-K of September 8 showed $176.3 million spent on 1.81 million STRC shares in one week and $1.19 billion of authorization left. A stock that rises 12 cents on a day when its benchmark rises 12 basis points is a stock with a large bid under it. The bid is Strategy's cash. The coupon stays fixed until October 1, so for the next 20 days the only thing standing between STRC and a wider discount is dollars that would otherwise buy coins. This is the lag Hashpoint measures, and this week it has a price tag.
No Strategy filing arrived in the last 24 hours, and none is due until Monday. Holdings stand at 845,050 BTC at an average cost of $75,412. The last purchase remains the 4,603 BTC bought at $80,318 in late August, now $3,100 per coin underwater. MSTR fell 1.5% Thursday.
The box, one floor higher
The dashboard answered this morning, so the bands are current. Floor $63,601, median $151,431, ceiling $454,292, all generated at 7:32 AM ET. The floor climbed $115 since Wednesday's read. Price fell $937. The floor multiple dropped from 1.23 to 1.21 and the median multiple slipped to 0.51, its first move at the second decimal since the series began. Thursday's Coinbase close came in at $76,537. The 24-hour range reads $76,546 to $78,449, and that low sits $12,945 above the floor.
The network read is the only one that improved. CoinWarz projects the September 19 retarget at +3.12% to 131.43 trillion with 1,187 blocks to go, up from the +1.99% estimate on Wednesday, which means blocks came in fast this week. YCharts prints a single-day hashrate of 849 EH/s for September 10 against 1,020 EH/s the day before; the daily series is noisy and the 30-day picture stays near 934 EH/s. Miners keep running the same machines into a lower price.
The Hashpoint read
Price sits at 1.21 times the power-law floor and 0.51 times the median. The 10-year crossed 4.90%, the disconfirming level this series set on Wednesday, and stayed there. ETF flows turned negative for three sessions and took back $449.5 million. STRC held its ground only because Strategy spent for it. Every one of the spring's constraints tightened this week, and the one number that moved the right way, STRC's 12 cent gain, came from the cash pile that the accumulation engine needs for coins.
CPI prints at 8:30 AM ET this morning, with the Cleveland Fed nowcast at 3.38% headline and 2.38% core. The next disconfirming data point is a print above that nowcast, which would push the 10-year toward 5.00% and STRC back toward Wednesday's $97.75 with the coupon locked for 20 more days. The next confirming one is unchanged: a STRC close at or above $100.00, which reopens the ATM and puts Strategy back on the bid. The FOMC decides Wednesday. Difficulty retargets on September 19. The spring stores what this week put into it.
Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (power-law bands, supply pressure, ETF cumulative flows, Strategy purchases), CoinGecko, CoinDesk, The Cryptotimes, Trading Economics, Google Finance, CoinWarz, YCharts, Kiplinger, Bitcoin News Digest, Yahoo Finance. Nothing here is investment advice.
