The Hashpoint for September 12, 2026
September 12, 2026 · Dennis W. Davis
Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 12, 2026
The week ended with a date on the lag. Fed funds futures price an 88% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its policy rate on Wednesday, September 16, up from 71% on Thursday, after August core CPI came in at 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus. STRC closed the week at $97.83, $2.17 under par, and its 12.00% coupon stays locked until October 1. That leaves 15 days between a probable rate hike and the first day Strategy's preferred can answer it. Bitcoin trades at $77,286 this Saturday morning, up 0.66% in 24 hours and down 3.0% on the week. Against the Hashpoint floor of $63,601 that is 1.22 times the floor and 0.51 times the $151,431 median. The spring absorbed the whole week and gave back nothing.
The week's two numbers
at 4.93% after touching 4.99% on Friday, with the 30-year at 5.37% on Thursday.
The 10-year yield touched 4.99% on Friday morning and settled at 4.93% by the close, two basis points under Thursday's 4.95% print on the Fed's H.15 table. The 30-year sat at 5.37% on Thursday and the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.55%, the highest real-yield read since this series began. The dollar did not follow: DXY read 99.10 on Friday morning, up 0.06%. WTI crude gave back $3.29 to $99.19 after Thursday's close above $100.
The CPI report settled the Fed question in the market's mind. Headline prices rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% on the year, matching July. Core rose 0.3% against the 0.2% estimate, and core stands at 2.4% on the year. The CME FedWatch reading for a 25 basis point hike jumped from 71% to 88% on the print. The decision arrives Wednesday. The Fed's quiet period holds through then, so no speaker will move the curve before the statement.
STRC closed Friday at $97.83, down 0.19% on the session by TradingView's read. A buyer at that price collects 12.27% on the fixed 12.00% coupon. The count of days since the last close at or above $100 stands at 124, dating to May 11. Hashpoint's own analysis holds that the monthly repricing lag on STRC's coupon is the structural fact of this month: the 10-year moved from under 4.80% on September 8 to 4.99% on Friday, and STRC's rate cannot move at all until October 1. This week the calendar put a probable Fed hike inside that window.
Four sessions, $462.7 million out
million across four sessions this week, with Friday's $13.2 million outflow the smallest of the four.
The ETF complex sold on every day of the holiday-shortened week. Tuesday took out $46.6 million, Wednesday $120.2 million, Thursday $282.7 million, and Friday $13.2 million, for $462.7 million in four sessions. ARKB accounted for $234.2 million of the week's redemptions and GBTC for $129.1 million. IBIT lost $52.5 million and FBTC $50.7 million. Morgan Stanley's MSBT took in $19.7 million and Bitwise's BITB $1.9 million, the only two funds with net inflows on the week.
Friday's $13.2 million was the smallest print of the week and came on a day when Bitcoin rose 1.0% to a $77,347 close by Investing.com's tally. Ether funds gathered $196.9 million over the same four sessions. Cumulative net inflow since launch on the trackers reads $55.1 billion. The Hashpoint dashboard did not answer this morning, so the 30-day supply-pressure ratio carries no update from Friday's 3.37.
Strategy waits for Monday
effective yield of 12.27% with the coupon locked at 12.00% until October 1.
No Strategy filing arrived in the last 24 hours. The next 8-K is due Monday morning, September 14, and it will cover the week ending September 13. Holdings stand at 845,050 BTC at an average cost of $75,412, so the position sits $1,874 per coin in the money at this morning's price. The last purchase, 4,603 BTC at $80,318 in late August, remains $3,032 per coin underwater.
cost; the September 8 filing showed zero coins bought and $176.3 million spent on STRC.
The September 8 filing set the pattern to watch on Monday. Strategy bought no Bitcoin in the week to September 7 and spent $176.3 million buying back 1,810,885 STRC shares, with $1.19 billion of the doubled $2 billion authorization remaining. STRC fell 14 cents from Thursday's $97.97 to Friday's $97.83 with that bid presumably still under it. Monday's filing will show how many dollars the buyback consumed in a week when the 10-year touched 4.99%, and how many coins that left unbought.
The box holds its shape
the power-law floor of $63,601 and 0.51 times the median of $151,431.
The bands carry Friday's dashboard read of floor $63,601, median $151,431, and ceiling $454,292, since the dashboard did not answer this morning. Price rose $63 against Friday's edition. The floor multiple reads 1.22 and the median multiple 0.51. Friday's session ran from a $76,297 low to a $79,696 high, and the low sat $12,696 above the floor. The week's low of $76,297 and the week's high of $80,530 both sit inside the same box the series has measured since September 9.
127.45 trillion with the September 19 retarget estimated at +4.27% and 1,010 blocks to go.
The network keeps accelerating into the retarget. CoinWarz now projects the September 19 adjustment at +4.27% to roughly 132.9 trillion, up from +3.12% on Friday, with 1,010 blocks remaining at block 966,670. Hashrate reads near 934 EH/s on the 30-day view. Blocks are arriving faster than the 10-minute target while price sits 3.0% below the 50-week moving average of $79,668.
The Hashpoint read
median, STRC at $97.83, the 10-year at 4.93% with an 88% hike probability for Wednesday.
Price sits at 1.22 times the power-law floor and 0.51 times the median. STRC ended the week $2.17 under par with its coupon frozen for 19 more days. The 10-year closed at 4.93% after touching 4.99%, and the market prices Wednesday's hike at 88%. ETF desks pulled $462.7 million in four sessions. Every constraint on the spring held or tightened this week, and price moved $63.
The next confirming data point is the Monday 8-K: a second straight week of zero Bitcoin purchases with STRC buyback dollars in the nine figures would confirm that the lag is throttling accumulation at the balance-sheet level, not just in the price of the preferred. The next disconfirming one is a STRC close at or above $100.00, which reopens the ATM. Between them sit the Senate's CLARITY Act cloture vote at 2:15 PM ET on Monday and the Fed decision on Wednesday. The spring keeps what the week loaded into it.
Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (Friday's power-law bands and supply-pressure read; the dashboard did not respond this morning), Bybit, Coinbase, Investing.com, Federal Reserve H.15, FRED, Quartz, Charles Schwab, crypto.news, TFTC, Bitcoin News Digest, TradingView, CoinWarz, Cryptolexicon, Decrypt, The Block, TechTimes. Nothing here is investment advice.
