The Hashpoint for September 19, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 19, 2026

Strategy's common stock gained 12.9% on Friday and its preferred stock gained 39 cents. MSTR closed at $149.25. STRC closed at $98.51, up 0.39% and still $1.49 under a $100 par it last touched 131 days ago. Bitcoin rose 5.9% through the same session and trades at $81,074 this morning, up 4.3% in 24 hours and 4.9% on the week, which puts price at 1.27 times the power-law floor of $63,945 and 0.53 times the median of $152,251. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed seven basis points back to 5.00% across the same day.

The preferred clears its marker and stays under par

a 12.18% effective yield on day 131 without a close at or above $100.

StockAnalysis puts Friday's close at $98.51 against Thursday's $98.13. Yesterday this publication named $98.41 as the line that would disconfirm its own reading of the escalator lag, because a recovery above it on the current coupon would mean the buyback holds the bid without a rate change. Friday cleared that line by ten cents, on a day the 10-year moved the wrong way.

At $98.51 the 12.00% coupon yields 12.18% against a trailing paid rate of 11.50%. Today is day 131 since STRC last closed at or above $100 on May 11. The coupon resets October 1, which leaves eight sessions at a rate the market set in July. The at-the-market program stays shut and the next ex-dividend date falls September 30.

The size of the move matters as much as its direction. MSTR added $17 a share and STRC added 39 cents, separating the two by a factor of 33. One instrument tracks the coin. The other tracks a coupon.

average, and this morning's $81,074 puts the position $5,662 a coin above cost.

Strategy filed no 8-K in the last 24 hours, and the September 14 filing stands as the most recent. Holdings hold at 845,050 BTC on a $63.73 billion basis, a $75,412 average. At $81,074 the position sits $5,662 a coin above cost, against $2,689 two days ago and $935 on Wednesday.

Strategy has spent about $950.8 million on 9.96 million preferred shares since July 20, funding roughly $765 million from MSTR common sales and about $161 million from selling coins. The September 8 filing doubled the repurchase authorization to $2.0 billion. The company raised its own ceiling to buy paper back, holds $1.05 billion of room under it, and owns a preferred still trading $1.49 below par.

The envelope rises and price rises faster

the power-law floor of $63,945 and 0.53 times the median of $152,251.

Every dashboard endpoint refused this run for the second straight morning, a permission failure inside the automation rather than a fault at the site, so today's multiples use the bands the dashboard published Thursday: a $63,945 floor, a $152,251 median, a $456,753 ceiling. Against those anchors price reads 1.27 times the floor and 0.53 times the median. On September 9 the same measure read 1.24 and 0.52, and on Wednesday it read 1.19 and 0.50. The floor itself climbs every day, so the true multiple this morning sits a little under 1.27. Price gained more ground in one session than the envelope gains in a month.

EH/s at block 967,664, up 18.28% over 30 days, after today's retarget lifted difficulty 4.16% to 132.76 trillion.

CoinWarz reads hashrate at 1,010 EH/s, up 18.28% over 30 days, against 804 on the same page three days ago. That live estimate carries heavy noise, and today's retarget settles the question it cannot: difficulty adjusted upward 4.16% to 132.76 trillion, against a Friday estimate of 3.36%. Miners plugged in more machines than the estimator caught. The October 2 adjustment estimates 3.83% to 137.84 trillion.

The largest inflow of the series meets a 5% ten-year

$433.0 million Friday, the largest single session of this series, with FBTC at $310.7 million.

Farside's table for September 18 shows $433.0 million entering the complex, the largest one-day figure since this daily series began. FBTC took $310.7 million of that, IBIT $108.4 million, BITB $9.7 million and ARKB $1.9 million. GBTC printed zero and no fund redeemed. Thursday ran on one fund carrying the whole net; Friday spread the buying across the board. Three sessions now net $296.6 million positive after Wednesday removed $295.9 million, and cumulative net flow since launch reads $55.230 billion.

points to 5.00% Friday, with the 2-year at 4.75%, the 30-year at 5.34%, the real yield at 2.61% and the dollar index at 100.22.

The bond market spent Friday pricing more tightening. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid backed the September hike and said inflation runs above 3% and reaches well past energy prices. The 10-year answered with seven basis points to 5.00% and the 2-year matched it at 4.75%. The 30-year added four to 5.34%. FRED's 10-year real yield last printed 2.61% for September 17, and the dollar index finished at 100.222. Equities fell while the coin rose, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and the Russell 2000 down 0.9%.

The Bull View

• Bloomberg: Bitcoin topped $80,000 into the close and dragged the crypto equity complex with it.
• Benzinga: The coin gained 5.9% to $80,869 while MSTR gained 12.9% to $149.25 and Coinbase gained 10.6%.
• Farside Investors: Spot ETFs took in $433.0 million Friday, the largest day of the series, and not one fund redeemed.
• CoinDesk: The CFTC sent its crypto market rules to the White House budget office, and Chair Mike Selig said the agency is "locked in and ready to ship."
• CoinDesk: Bitcoin sits down only 1.5% in September and up about 32% for the quarter, tracking its first positive quarterly close since Q3 2025.

The bulls lean on a session that broke the month's correlation, with the coin up 5.9% while the 10-year reclaimed 5% and the S&P fell, and on ETF breadth, because Friday's $433.0 million arrived without one redemption in the table.

The Bear View

• Bloomberg: Kansas City Fed President Schmid backed the rate hike and warned that inflation above 3% extends beyond energy prices.
• Benzinga: The 10-year reclaimed 5.00% and the 30-year reached 5.34% as the Dow fell 0.4% and the Russell 2000 fell 0.9%.
• CoinDesk: Corporate treasuries bought just 5,900 Bitcoin across three months, the weakest corporate demand of this cycle.
• KuCoin: Axel Adler Jr. reads Friday as a short squeeze, with the liquidation pressure oscillator jumping to +54.52 from +0.48 and reversing if it returns to zero.
• Blockonomi: About $250 million of shorts liquidated inside four hours, and Rekt Capital calls $82,000 a moment of truth with double-top rejection risk.

The bears lean on the mechanics under Friday's tape, where forced short covering supplied the bid and the creations followed price rather than setting it. Their rate case did not weaken at all, because the 10-year closed the week at 5.00% with a hawkish regional president on the record and traders pricing three more hikes by April 2027.

The Hashpoint read

median, STRC $1.49 under par, the 10-year at 5.00%, and eight sessions to the October 1 reset.

Price sits at 1.27 times the power-law floor and 0.53 times the median, the highest reading on both measures since this series opened on September 9 at 1.24 and 0.52. The spring moved 4.3% in a day and stayed inside the same envelope it has occupied all month.

Friday handed this publication a result it named in advance, and honoring it comes first. The $98.41 mark fell by ten cents on a session when the 10-year rose seven basis points against the instrument. That outcome argues against treating the monthly escalator as the binding constraint on Strategy's funding. Hashpoint's own analysis of the lag holds that a coupon reset strands the largest institutional bid for weeks after the bond market reprices. Friday's close says a $2.0 billion repurchase authorization can carry the preferred through the wait.

One qualifier survives, small and real. STRC gained 0.39% on a day MSTR gained 12.9% and the coin gained 5.9%, so risk appetite performed some of the work the buyback now claims, and $98.51 remains $1.49 under a par the instrument last touched 131 days ago with the ATM shut. The escalator lost its urgency Friday. Its arithmetic stayed put.

The bulls get the flow right and the cause thin, because $250 million of liquidated shorts inside four hours produced most of a 5.9% move and the creations chased it. The bears get the discount rate right and the sequence wrong, because the 10-year printed 5.00% and Bitcoin closed up 5.9% on the same tape.

The next confirming data point is Monday's STRC print, then the October 1 reset. A close at or above $99.00 before that reset would retire the escalator question for this cycle and hand the argument to the buyback. A slide back under $98.00 with the 10-year flat would say Friday bought the coin's rally and nothing structural, and the coupon still carries the weight on the first.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (bands of September 17; all endpoints unreachable this morning on a run permission failure), Farside Investors, StockAnalysis, CoinGecko, CoinDesk, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, FRED, Benzinga, Bloomberg, Fortune, KuCoin, Blockonomi, StockTitan SEC filing coverage. Nothing here is investment advice.