The Hashpoint for September 20, 2026

Bitcoin Hashpoint, September 20, 2026

Spot Bitcoin ETFs moved $1.499 billion of gross flow across the five sessions ending Friday and kept $6.2 million of it. The week held the largest single-day inflow of this series, $433.0 million on Friday, and the second-largest outflow, $450.3 million on Tuesday, and the two nearly cancelled. Bitcoin trades at $80,362 this morning, down 0.9% in 24 hours and up 3.8% on the week, which puts price at 1.26 times the power-law floor of $63,945 and 0.53 times the median of $152,251. STRC closed Friday at $98.51, $1.49 under a par it last touched 132 days ago, and the 10-year Treasury yield finished the week at 5.00%.

A billion and a half dollars that went nowhere

The Block's tally of the week reads $160.0 million in on Monday, $450.3 million out on Tuesday, $296.0 million out on Wednesday, $159.5 million in on Thursday and $433.0 million in on Friday. Add the five and $6.2 million remains. Fund level detail sharpens the point: IBIT took $120.7 million for the week and FBTC took $79.9 million, while every other fund in the complex gave up $194.4 million between them.

Friday looked nothing like the week that contained it: FBTC drew $310.7 million, IBIT $108.4 million, and no fund redeemed. Farside's cumulative total reads $55.230 billion since launch, and the complex sits $1.45 billion down for 2026.

The rate backdrop explains that arithmetic better than sentiment does. The 10-year added seven basis points Friday to 5.00%, 35 above where it started the month, the 30-year holds 5.33%, FRED's real yield last printed 2.61%, and the dollar index finished at 100.222. Money that arrives Friday and leaves Tuesday rents the trade, and a 2.61% real yield prices the rent.

The preferred keeps its gain and the common keeps the beta

StockAnalysis confirms Friday's close at $98.51 against Thursday's $98.13, a 0.39% gain on a session when Bitcoin gained 5.9%. The $12.00 annual rate yields 12.18% there, against a trailing paid rate of 11.50%. Today marks day 132 since STRC last closed at or above $100 on May 11. The coupon resets October 1, which leaves seven sessions at a rate the market set in July, and the at-the-market program stays shut through the September 30 ex-dividend date.

One number from Friday needs correcting. This publication reported MSTR's close at $149.25 and its gain at 12.9%. StockAnalysis puts the close at $153.92 for a 16.39% gain, and the $132.25 previous close reconciles. That widens the gap: Strategy's common gained 16.39% Friday and its preferred gained 0.39%, a factor of 42. Bitcoin beta reaches the equity and stops at the funding instrument.

Strategy filed nothing over the weekend, and the September 14 8-K stands as the most recent: zero Bitcoin bought or sold, 1,420,467 STRC repurchased for $139.3 million. Holdings hold at 845,050 BTC on a $75,412 average, so this morning's price leaves the position $4,950 a coin above cost. Filings through September 13 put the buyback at roughly $950.8 million since July 20, funded about $765 million from MSTR common sales and about $161 million from selling coins, against a $2.0 billion authorization with roughly $1.05 billion left.

The envelope holds while the network cools

Every dashboard endpoint refused this run for the third straight morning, a permission failure inside the automation rather than a fault at the site, so today's multiples use the bands the dashboard published September 17: a $63,945 floor, a $152,251 median, a $456,753 ceiling. Price reads 1.26 times that floor and 0.53 times the median, a shade under Friday's 1.27. The floor climbs every day the bands sit still, so the real multiple runs lower, and three sessions of carry-forward marks the outer limit of what these anchors support.

CoinWarz reads hashrate at 828 EH/s, down 7.77% over seven days, or 57.9% of the 1.43 ZH/s peak recorded February 15. That estimator printed 1,010 EH/s on Saturday, so the retarget math settles what the live reading cannot: with blocks arriving 11 seconds inside target, the October 3 adjustment estimates 1.84% to 135.2 trillion against Friday's 3.83% estimate. Miners who plugged in machines ahead of the September 19 retarget have started pulling them back. At block 967,818 the network runs 60.9% through halving cycle four with 82,182 blocks left to block 1,050,000.

The Bull View

• CoinDesk: Bitcoin holds above $80,000 after a failed Clarity vote, a Fed hike and a BoJ hike inside one week.
• CoinDesk: Bitcoin is down only 1.5% in September against a 3% seasonal average and up about 32% for the quarter, its first positive quarter since Q3 2025.
• The Block: Friday's $433.0 million inflow was the strongest day since early September, and no fund redeemed.
• Bitcoin Magazine: Deutsche Bank will debut Bitcoin custody for institutional clients.
• CryptoTimes: The House Financial Services Committee advanced H.R. 8957 by 28-21, putting a 20-year lock on government Bitcoin holdings.

The bulls lean on a market that absorbed three policy shocks in five days without losing $76,000, and on Friday's breadth. Their policy case rests on agency rulemaking and a committee vote rather than the statute the Senate killed.

The Bear View

• The Block: The full week netted $6.2 million, and the complex sits $1.45 billion down year to date.
• The Block: Every fund outside IBIT and FBTC gave up $194.4 million on the week.
• CoinDesk: Corporate treasuries bought 5,900 Bitcoin across three months, the weakest corporate demand of this cycle.
• Trading Economics: The 10-year closed at 5.00%, the 30-year at 5.33% and the real yield at 2.61%.
• CoinDesk: Seasonality has Bitcoin falling 2.5% in week 38, which starts tomorrow.

The bears lean on the week rather than the day. Two funds gathered assets and the rest leaked them, corporate buying ran at 5,900 coins a quarter, and the curve never gave an inch.

The Hashpoint read

Price sits at 1.26 times the power-law floor and 0.53 times the median, two hundredths from where this series opened September 9 at 1.24 and 0.52. Eleven sessions took in a failed cloture vote, a Fed hike, a Bank of Japan hike and a 16% day in the largest corporate holder's stock. The spring occupies the same coil.

The week's flow number gives the cleanest measurement this publication has had of the institutional bid. A complex that churned $1.499 billion and retained $6.2 million is not accumulating at a 2.61% real yield. It is trading.

The bulls get Friday right and the week wrong. One session of $433.0 million says the bid exists; five sessions of $6.2 million say it arrives and departs on the same impulse. The bears get the flow right and the price wrong, because Bitcoin gained 3.8% on the week the flow went flat, so spot buyers outside the wrapper did that work.

Friday's 42-to-1 split between MSTR and STRC supports Hashpoint's own reading of the escalator lag. A coupon set in July still governs the preferred while the common reprices Bitcoin in real time, and $950.8 million of company money holds the instrument $1.49 under par on day 132. Last week's close above $98.41 weakened the urgency half of that thesis. Friday's split restores part of it.

Monday brings the confirming data point in two pieces. A Strategy 8-K carrying another STRC repurchase confirms that the buyback and not the coupon holds the bid, and a filing with none leaves the October 1 reset carrying the instrument alone. A STRC close at or above $99.00 before that reset retires the escalator question for this cycle, and a close under $98.00 with the 10-year at 5.00% says Friday bought the coin's rally and nothing more.

Data: Bitcoin Hashpoint dashboard (bands of September 17; all seven endpoints refused this morning on a run permission failure), Farside Investors, The Block, StockAnalysis, CoinGecko, CoinDesk, CoinWarz, Trading Economics, FRED, Federal Reserve H.15, Bitcoin Magazine, CryptoTimes, Cryptobriefing. Nothing here is investment advice.