The Hashpoint for July 2, 2026
Bitcoin sits at its power-law floor while the institutional bid drains from every channel at once. STRC below par is the mechanical cause.
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The Hashpoint
Bitcoin opens the week of June 1 at $73,771 inside a 744 point band, with the Hashpoint model reading $74,917 at seven days and $79,329 at thirty.
The Compression
Bitcoin holds $73,771 in a 744 point band while Treasury yields reach their highest since 2007 and Strategy buys bonds instead of coin.
The BitVac Pauses
Strategy bought bonds rather than Bitcoin in the week of May 24, holding 843,738 BTC at a $75,700 average cost while its funding apparatus recharges.
The 2007 Number
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.197% on May 20, its highest since July 2007, with the VIX at 15.32. What long dated yields do to Bitcoin.
Six Days Out
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted six straight days of outflows and $1.42 billion of weekly exits, cutting 2026 net inflows to $536 million.
Midweek Dispatch
Eight consecutive days of U.S. spot ETF outflows since May 14 total more than $2 billion, with Bitcoin at $74,750 and the 10-year Treasury at 4.50%.
Three Pillars, One Crack: How Bitcoin's Spring Rally Met the Mid-May Pipeline
Spot ETF flows reversed, Strategy's funding mechanism breached par, and a single CPI print forced a wholesale repricing of Fed expectations. All in one week. All compounding.
The CPI Print That Broke the Rally
April inflation data forced Fed funds futures to reprice from rate cuts toward rate hikes. The macro environment for Bitcoin is now restrictive, not accommodative.
Reading the $1 Billion Outflow Week
ETF flows reversed sharply in the second week of May. The reversal reveals something durable about the nature of institutional demand in 2026. It amplifies, but it does not lead.
Inside the STRC Par Defense: Why $99.30 Matters More Than $77,000
Strategy's preferred-stock funding instrument has become the single most consequential mechanism in 2026's Bitcoin supply-demand balance. Here's why it's flashing yellow.
The Hashpoint
Where Bitcoin sits in its long-run structural envelope. The simplest version of what the data says.